近年来，中国制造业正掀起一场以“机器换人”为主要抓手的自动化升级浪潮。无疑，以“机器换人”为特征的升级转型在很大程度上缓解了制造业企业多年来“招工难”“用工贵”的人力资源困境，也助力许多企业持续提升市场竞争力，在全球价值链中不断向上攀升，成为兼具品质与价格优势的“中国制造”标杆。然而，我们也要注意到技术作为一把“双刃剑”所引发的社会效应，例如“机器换人”对劳动力的替代效应及造成的潜在失业风险、技术变迁之下劳动者工作内容和方式的变化等。 2013年就有国外学者预测，机器人和计算机技术对劳动力的替代率可高达47%，其中制造业生产工人属于高风险的被取代职业。国内学者的研究发现，目前机器人对劳动力市场的整体替代率还不足1%。尽管如此，社会和舆论却依然对可能到来的技术性失业感到焦虑。中国劳动统计年鉴数据显示，我国制造业就
In recent years, China's manufacturing industry is setting off a wave of automation upgrading with "machine for man" as the main starting point. Undoubtedly, the upgrading and transformation characterized by "machine replacement" has greatly alleviated the human resource dilemma of manufacturing enterprises for many years, such as "difficult recruitment" and "expensive employment". It has also helped many enterprises to continuously improve their market competitiveness and continuously rise up in the global value chain, becoming a "made in China" benchmark with both quality and price advantages. However, we should also pay attention to the social effects caused by technology as a "double-edged sword", such as the substitution effect of "machine replacement" on labor force and the potential risk of unemployment, and the changes of workers' work contents and ways under the change of technology. In 2013, some foreign scholars predicted that the replacement rate of robot and computer technology for labor force could be as high as 47%, among which manufacturing workers are high-risk occupations to be replaced. Domestic scholars have found that the overall replacement rate of robots for the labor market is less than 1%. Nevertheless, the society and public opinion are still anxious about the possibility of technical unemployment. China's labor statistics yearbook data show that China's manufacturing industry is on the rise
